The stance of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe looks like that of Soviet
Union Premier Georgy Malenkov after the death of Stalin in the 1950s
or Chairman Hua Guofeng, who took over as premier in China after Mao
Zedong in the second half of the 1970s. Koizumi's successor, the Abe
Cabinet, is quite likely to share the fate of these other two
administrations and end up being a weak, short-term power.
END
Prime Minister Abe has come to a fork in the road: He can continue
on as Koizumi's successor or he can choose the path that extricates
him from Koizumi's legacy. For Abe to set off on this path, he will
have to achieve something akin to Khruschev's criticism of Stalin or
Deng Xiaoping's rebirth of post-Mao China.
Koizumi politics were fixated on following American politics.
Because of this fixation, many good traditions of Japan were
destroyed and the nation was transformed into a society characterized
by an ugly wealth gap. The Abe Cabinet should work on correcting the
pervasive and serious mistakes of the former Koizumi Cabinet.
Prime Minister Abe stands hesitantly at a crossroads. Will he end
as a second Malenkov or Hua Guofeng? Or will he become like
Khruschev, who led the anti-Stalinization and the subsequent reforms
of the Soviet Union? Or perhaps he will choose the path followed by
Deng Xiaoping, who spearheaded anti-Mao reforms and the opening of a
wounded China in the wake of Mao's Cultural Revolution.
Prime Minister Abe's only legitimate option is to strive to become
Japan's Deng Xiaoping. To do this, Abe should declare to the nation
that the basis of Abe politics is the unwinding of the Koizumi legacy.
If Abe develops a policy that corrects that legacy in detail and
acknowledges the many ways that Koizumi politics destroyed the best
of Japan's traditions, the prime minister will find public support.
The steps Abe should take include, first, completely changing the
foreign policies set in motion during Koizumi's premiership. He has
already corrected Japan's policies toward Asia, but the central
problem is fixing Japan's policy toward the US. He should correct
the excessive "follow America" approach of the former prime minister
and achieve more equal footing with the US.
The other step he should take concerns his party's dependence on the
New Komeito Party and the Buddhist lay organization Soka Gakkai every
time election day comes around. As long as the Liberal Democratic
Party continues to lean on New Komeito and Soka Gakkai, the party
will decline.
Prime Minister Abe must liberate himself from Koizumi politics, Bush
politics, New Komeito and Soka Gakkai. The nation is waking up to the
fact that the increase in the working poor, the worsening wealth gap
and various other evils lay at the feet of Koizumi politics. For
Prime Minister Abe, an anti-Koizumi approach is the path to political
survival.