The results of the House of Councillors by-elections ? one win, one loss? represent a defeat for the Democratic Party of Japan, the main opposition party. The DPJ should realize this at once and begin to rally support for the next battle.
The climax of the April 22 vote was the Okinawa upper house by- election. It's really a shame that the opposition was not able to present a unified front and advance its candidate in Okinawa, although the DPJ candidate won in Fukushima Prefecture. At the press conference after the results had been posted, the ruling coalition members oozed a sense of victory while the opposition seemed adrift in defeat. These attitudes showed the true meaning of one win, one loss.
This is the second straight defeat for the opposition in Okinawa, following the Nov. 2006 gubernatorial race. And this one hurts. The opposition needs to rebuild its front line in Okinawa and learn a lesson from this defeat. One point worth taking note of is that when it comes to the drive to win, there seemed to be a little gap between the two sides.
However, one important point should not be forgotten. This battle is some distance from the 21st House of Councillors election on July 22.
It's not necessary to get too down about this one poor showing.
The truth of the matter is that the opposition could lose all the battles leading up to the election, then win the election and be quite happy with the results. The strategic priority is to achieve a reversal of power in the July 22 upper house vote. All the DPJ and its allies need to do is win the final battle.
Meanwhile, the strategy of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito ruling coalition has been to win all the battles leading up to and including the July 22 vote. While the opposition can focus all its energy on the 7/22 battle, the Abe Cabinet has made it plain that it wants to win every battle.
Within the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, those who are very close to the ruling coalition hold a lot of sway. While DPJ party chief Ichiro Ozawa's basic strategy is to break up the ruling coalition in the July 22 battle, there is a minority in his own party who don't want him to succeed. These are the snakes in the grass. Those who don't want the DPJ to win need to leave the party immediately.
The most important thing for the DPJ right now is to close ranks around party leader Ozawa.
In the Fukushima by-election, the winner was DPJ's Teruhiko Mashiko, a former lower house member. After his victory was announced, Mashiko said at a press conference that the people of Fukushima had delivered a message of "no to the Abe administration." That was the right thing to say, but it is also true that the results in Okinawa saved Abe.
What the opposition needs to learn for the nationwide elections this spring is that its biggest enemy is the New Komeito Party and the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. The DPJ needs to aggressively confront and criticize these two related organizations. If it doesn't go all out on this point, it won't win on July 22. In fact, the opposition needs to feel this message in its bones; it needs to raise awareness of the role Soka Gakkai plays in electioneering, then criticize and attack the organization with all its might. The status quo in Japanese politics today ? the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition ? is supported by Soka Gakkai. This very support should be the focus of a strong attack.