Will the Upper House Elections Give Power to the Opposition?
The Main Issue: Rapidly Increasing Gap between Haves and Have-Nots
The first half of 2007 is election season in Japan. Local elections
will be held across the nation in spring, followed by the 21st House
of Councillors elections in summer. In the local elections, the
dominating theme will be the society of haves and have-nots that the
Koizumi administration's restructuring efforts have brought about.
The main subject of the upper house elections in summer will be the
balance of power. If the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), New Komeito,
the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and the other political parties
continue the trends started in the 2004 election, then the balance of
power will tip to the opposition in '07. If the opposition can grab a
majority of the seats, then the LDP and New Komeito, the current
ruling coalition, will lose its ability to make laws.
The Possibilities and Realities of a Power Change
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When the ruling party secures a majority in the upper house, it can
organize its Cabinet, prepare the government's budget and validate
treaties. Japan's House of Representatives is given more power by the
country's Constitution because it can appoint the prime minister,
approve the budget and ratify treaties. But laws must be passed by
both the upper and lower houses.
However, there is an exception to this rule. In Article 59 of the
Constitution, it is stated that "a bill which is passed by the House
of Representatives, and upon which the House of Councillors makes a
decision different from that of the House of Representatives, becomes
a law when passed a second time by the House of Representatives by a
majority of two-thirds or more of the members present." So
theoretically, it is possible that the opposition could win a
majority in the upper house and vote down bills presented by the
ruling party, only to see them passed into law with a two-thirds re-
vote in the lower house. However, in reality, this is difficult to
pull off because the opposition is likely to put up strong resistance
in the face of what would be perceived as an over-riding of the
bicameral system.
If the balance of power shifts to the opposition in the summer '07
upper house election, Japanese politics would enter a period of
turbulence. If the Liberal Democrats suffer a serious defeat, a mass
resignation of the Abe Cabinet is possible.
And while a same-day election of both houses of the Diet in the
summer of '07 is possible, common sense points us to an upper house
election followed by one for the lower house. If the opposition takes
the upper house, the next lower house election would pit the LDP-New
Komeito coalition against DPJ (plus The People's New Party and the
Social Democratic Party). If the there is a shift in power because of
the '07 upper house elections, the political situation in Japan would
grow tense and the possibility of a power change would suddenly be
closer to reality, and the next lower house elections would become a
decisive national forum.
The LDP-New Komeito ruling coalition is a strong political power
that has allied itself with the bureaucracy, the financial sector,
the media and academic circles. Still, a big opportunity is coming
for the Democrats. First, the outlying prefectures still hold a
majority of Japan's population, and they continue to drift away from
the LDP. Second, when it comes to Japan's international posture, the
political winds are behind the DPJ. The change has come about because
of the decline of President Bush and the Republicans in the US and
the rise of a new middle road for politics.
The LDP-New Komeito ruling coalition has aligned itself firmly with
the Bush administration's focus on war and competition, producing a
government reliant on state power. Any semblance of centrist power
within the ruling coalition has been destroyed. Centrist politics
around the world is on the rise, and Japan is influenced by this. The
wind is firmly at the backs of the DPJ.
Ichiro Ozawa, president of the DPJ, insists on a politics that is
"peaceful, safe, sympathetic and centrist." The time for the Ozawa
Democrats has approached. The upper house election in the summer of
'07 is very likely to be a major turning point in Japanese politics.
It is now possible to envision the birth of a new ruling coalition by
the summer of 2009 that would include the Democrats, The People's New
Party and the Social Democratic Party, with Ichiro Ozawa as its leader.
